Blackjack Splitting 10s Game
Blackjack Splitting Cards
Blackjack Splitting 10s Definition

So you got a J-Q hand in front of you. The dealer shows 5 and you are thinking to yourself: yes, I know people say that splitting tens is a mistake, but he has 5 and there are good chances his hole card is 10 to 15 and bust; so I’ll just split this one time. You split and get 7 and 4, so you stand. The dealer gets 2 and K to 17 and you see your money go down the drain.

In Face-up Blackjack, where all the cards dealt are exposed, including both dealer's cards, the correct strategy is to split 10s against the dealer's 13, 14, 15 or 16.
Well, the same goes for splitting 10s in blackjack. So, you should only split 10s if you have mastered the ‘dark arts’ of card counting. Needless to say, card counting in online blackjack makes little sense because the decks are shuffled after each hand.

So let’s see how many mistakes where done in this play and how much it cost you. First, counting dealers hole card as 10 is one of the common blackjack myths. The odds that he will get a 10 value card are much lower than 50%, 31% to be exact, so making this assumption is a big mistake.

Second, there is a reason why splitting 10s is a bad move. Before we get into statistics and odds, let’s see how much money it cost you in this particular situation. The answer is not 2, not 3, but 4! Times your original bet. If your bet was $10, then you lost $20 instead of winning $20. Of course that’s just one extreme example to show how costly it can be.

Splitting 10s is basically equal to strolling around the casino floor with “I am an advantage player” written on your forehead. Splitting a pair of 10s is also a good move in blackjack tournaments where your goal is not to beat the dealer on individual hands but to prevail over other players by finishing with more money on the final chip count. Why not split my 10's. If the count was very high, a lot of 10s in the deck, then the chance of the dealer having a 16 then hitting to bust is a high probality. If I split my 10s and get more 10s then I will have more hands of 20 on the table. Or I just keep spliting to the table max.

Some Help from Steve Kerr

In a fascinating way, Steve Kerr used the Splitting 10s rule to explain Draymond Green his mistake. So we will go the opposite way. Check the video here: Draymond takes the ball and drives to the basket. The defender goes to Steph. But, instead of going for an easy dunk, Draymond passes the ball to Steph. You can see how it ended.

Draymond choose to pass on sure 2 points for possible 3. Steph is shooting 50%+ from 3 point range. That means that Draymond traded 2 points for 1.5 points.

Splitting 10s is exactly the same. You trade almost certainly winning hand for a chance to get bigger payout. The only difference is that your odds of getting blackjack on your split hands is much lower than Steph hitting that 3-pointer.

Kerr lets us know what he think of this bad decision pic.twitter.com/RV3kkI2thF

— BBALLBREAKDOWN (@bballbreakdown) January 9, 2018

Splitting Tens vs. Standing Odds

As we explained in our article on Blackjack Split strategy, there are two main situations in which you should split. First one, is to avoid/improve weak hands, such as 8s. This also referred as defensive split. The second reason is to take full advantage of a strong hand, such as splitting 9s vs. dealers 4 for example. As you can see, splitting 10 value cards doesn’t fall under any of the two. You will just be exchanging one winning hand to two solid hands and as they say, one bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. In this case, it’s worth much more.

To make it simple: There is not a single situation in a regular blackjack game when splitting tens will give you higher return than standing with 20. Whatever the dealer has, 4, 5, 6, it doesn’t matter. If you split, you will be lowering your winning odds.

Dealer’s 6 is the closest situation, but even there, the expected return for splitting is 143%, while standing will get you 177%. That means that you will win $77 instead of $43 on every $100 wagered on this type of hands. On other dealer up cards the gap is even bigger.

When You Should Split Tens?

As with every rule, there are some exceptions, two to be exact:

Tiffany williamson poker. Double Exposure Blackjack (Face Up): In this blackjack variation both dealer’s cards are exposed which gives us additional information on whether we should split, double, stand and so forth. In Face up blackjack you should split tens vs. dealer’s 13, 14, 15 and 16.

Card Counting: If you count cards, then you should split 10s when the deck is rich in 10s. On true count of +5 you should split vs. dealer’s 5 and 6.

Bottom line: unless you are playing Double Exposure or counting cards, never split 10s. We promise that if you stick to this rule, in the end of day you will have more chips in front of you, which is pretty much the point.

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Among my recent emails from players, I have several on the topic of splitting tens. One player mentioned that he seems to win more often than not when splitting tens against a dealer 5 or 6, so he was wondering if the play could be justified. Actually, his basic assertion is correct. You will win more often than not when splitting tens in those situations. But, winning more than 50% of the time is only part of the story.

When the dealer has a 5 or 6 up, he will bust more than 40% of the time. That’s why basic strategy against those dealer upcards becomes quite a bit more aggressive. You should double 9, 10, and 11. Among soft totals, you should double A2 through A7. So, if you are dealt a pat 20, why not split the pair and get more money on the table while the dealer is weak?

Like all of basic strategy, this decision comes down to which action makes you the most money in the long run. Your single hand of a pat 20 is worth more than double what a single hand starting with a ten is worth.

Splitting Tens costs you money.

Assume we are playing a 6 deck, H17 game and we are dealt a pair of 10s against a dealer 6. Our initial bet is $10.

If we stand with 20, we’ll win our $10 bet 78% of the time. We’ll push with a dealer 20 about 11% of the time, and lose to a dealer 21 another 11% of the time. On average, we’ll win $6.77 by standing.

If we instead split the tens (only once) and put a $10 bet on each hand, what happens? On average, each of these hands is still a winner, but the average win on each hand is only $2.78. Our total expected win on both hands combined is just $5.56, which is more than $1 less than the value if we had just stood on the 20. Despite having twice as much money bet in a favorable situation, we are now expected to win less overall.

If it’s bad to split tens just once, it is of course worse to resplit them. If your strategy is to split tens and resplit up to the usual three times allowed, your total bet will be either $20, $30 or $40. Over all of these possibilities, your expected profit drops further yet to a grand total of only $4.51, more than $2 less than the value of your initial single $10 bet on a pat 20.

What about card counters?

Despite the risk of confusing basic strategy players, I can’t talk about splitting tens without addressing what happens if you count cards. Because card counters have extra information about the remaining cards to be dealt, they are able to identify occasions when splitting tens does become the mathematically correct play. In our example game, the Hi-Lo index number for splitting tens against a dealer 6 is +4. (For indexes for other specific games, see our Advanced Blackjack Strategy cards.) When the true count is at +4 or higher, the value of multiple hands surpasses the value of the pat 20.

Having said that, even if the true count indicates that the play is warranted it may still be a bad idea to split tens. Because the act of splitting tens draws so much attention, most card counters choose to ignore the index for splitting tens, and

Blackjack Splitting 10s